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Solar hosting capacity analysis (HCA) assesses the ability of a distribution network to host distributed solar generation without seriously violating distribution network constraints. In this paper, we consider risk-sensitive HCA that limits the risk of network constraint violations with a collection of scenarios of solar irradiance and nodal power demands, where risk is modeled via the conditional value at risk (CVaR) measure. First, we consider the question of maximizing aggregate installed solar capacities, subject to risk constraints and solve it as a second-order cone program (SOCP) with a standard conic relaxation of the feasible set of the power flow equations. Second, we design an incremental algorithm to decide whether a configuration of solar installations has acceptable risk of constraint violations, modeled via CVaR. The algorithm circumvents explicit risk computation by incrementally constructing inner and outer polyhedral approximations of the set of acceptable solar installation configurations from prior such tests conducted. Our numerical examples study the impact of risk parameters, the number of scenarios and the scalability of our framework. 

We study a first-order primal-dual subgradient method to optimize risk-constrained risk-penalized optimization problems, where risk is modeled via the popular conditional value at risk (CVaR) measure. The algorithm processes independent and identically distributed samples from the underlying uncertainty in an online fashion and produces an η/√K-approximately feasible and η/√K-approximately optimal point within K iterations with constant step-size, where η increases with tunable risk-parameters of CVaR. We find optimized step sizes using our bounds and precisely characterize the computational cost of risk aversion as revealed by the growth in η. Our proposed algorithm makes a simple modification to a typical primal-dual stochastic subgradient algorithm. With this mild change, our analysis surprisingly obviates the need to impose a priori bounds or complex adaptive bounding schemes for dual variables to execute the algorithm as assumed in many prior works. We also draw interesting parallels in sample complexity with that for chance-constrained programs derived in the literature with a very different solution architecture. 

There are growing concerns over the ability of current electricity market designs to adequately model and optimize against the stochastic nature of renewable resources such as wind and solar. In this paper, we consider an economic dispatch problem that explicitly accounts for said uncertainty and enforces network and generation limits using conditional value at risk. Our key contribution is the definition and analysis of risk-sensitive locational marginal prices (risk-LMPs) derived from such a market clearing problem. Risk-LMPs extend conventional LMPs to the uncertain setting. Settlements defined via risk-LMPs compensate resources for both energy and reserve schedules. We study these prices via sample average approximation (SAA) on example power networks to demonstrate their viability for electricity pricing with large-scale integration of renewables.